As the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches on February 24, 2025, Ukrainian military intelligence reports that the Kremlin is preparing to announce a symbolic "victory" over both Ukraine and NATO. This move is seen as an attempt to bolster domestic support and project strength internationally, despite ongoing hostilities and limited territorial gains, with Russia currently occupying approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Concurrently, high-level diplomatic efforts are underway to resolve the conflict. On February 18, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marking the most extensive U.S.-Russia engagement since the war began. The discussions led to agreements on establishing teams to negotiate an end to the war, restoring embassy staffing levels, and exploring economic cooperation. Notably, Ukrainian and European officials were absent from these talks, leading to concerns in Kyiv and among European allies about being excluded from the negotiation process.

President Donald Trump has expressed optimism about reaching a resolution but has also controversially suggested that Ukraine bears responsibility for the conflict's continuation. This stance has strained relations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has criticized the U.S.-Russia discussions for excluding Ukraine and emphasized the need for any peace agreement to include security guarantees for his nation.