French Prime Minister François Bayrou will face a confidence vote on Monday, a battle he is widely expected to lose. If his government falls, it could push the eurozone’s second-largest economy further into political instability. Bayrou, a long-standing figure in French politics from the centre-right, is the fourth person to hold the post of prime minister in the past three years. The challenge arrives at a delicate moment for Europe, which is struggling to maintain unity amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and increasing trade tensions with the United States.

 

France has been stuck in political deadlock since President Emmanuel Macron called early elections in 2024, which produced a hung parliament. Macron’s centrist alliance, already weakened after losing its majority in 2022, saw its numbers drop further. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally party became the largest single group, while a loose coalition of left-wing parties emerged as the biggest bloc, though still deeply divided. None of the groups managed to secure a majority. Macron’s grip on parliament has since weakened further, particularly as France’s debt burden has grown due to heavy spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to ease the cost-of-living crisis.

 

Analysts warn the political chaos is making it harder for France to address its rising debt, raising the risk of more credit downgrades. Last year’s budget deficit was nearly twice the EU’s 3 percent ceiling, and overall public debt climbed to 113.9 percent of GDP. In an attempt to bring spending under control, Bayrou proposed a 2026 budget that would cut 44 billion euros, but this sparked a strong backlash from opposition parties. Facing no realistic way to get it passed, Bayrou opted to call a confidence vote on his economic strategy, a move critics described as political suicide.

 

The opposition has made it clear it will vote him out, and it has enough support in parliament to succeed. The National Assembly is scheduled to meet at 3 p.m. local time, with Bayrou beginning the session with a speech that is expected to serve more as a political statement than an attempt to sway lawmakers. Ten parliamentary groups will then deliver their responses before ballots are cast. The outcome, determined by an absolute majority of votes, is expected later in the afternoon. Should the government lose, Bayrou will be required to hand his resignation to President Macron.

 

The next step would then depend on Macron. Although many parties are pressing for fresh elections, Macron has opposed that idea and would instead need to name a new prime minister. His options range from choosing a figure from the centre-left to appointing a technocrat. There is no strict timeline for such a decision, meaning Bayrou could remain as a caretaker leader until a successor is chosen.

 

Far-right and far-left parties continue to demand both new parliamentary elections and Macron’s resignation. However, Macron and his centrist and conservative allies believe another snap election would not resolve the crisis. According to sources close to the president, striking an agreement with the Socialist Party could be one of the few workable solutions. Among the names being discussed as possible replacements for Bayrou are Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Pierre Moscovici, head of France’s Court of Auditors and also a former Socialist minister.