The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is emerging as a new concern for global financial stability, according to Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos. He said the enormous investment flowing into AI infrastructure has become large enough to have an impact on economic conditions worldwide.
Hernández de Cos said AI does not alter the responsibilities of central banks, but it is making economic developments harder to assess. The technology is influencing consumer demand, production and financial markets at the same time, creating additional uncertainty for policymakers.
The BIS estimates that the five biggest technology companies are expected to spend more than $1 trillion on AI during 2025 and 2026. Broader industry projections indicate that worldwide AI investment could rise from roughly $500 billion at present to as much as $4 trillion by 2030.
Speaking at a conference organised by India’s central bank, Hernández de Cos said AI has genuine potential to transform the economy. However, he stressed that its eventual impact will depend on policy decisions, investment in skills and infrastructure, and how widely the benefits of the technology are distributed.
Another concern is the way the AI expansion is being funded. Hernández de Cos said an increasing amount of financing is coming through debt and private credit rather than company earnings. He warned that the structure deserves careful attention because many of these financial connections are difficult to see and closely linked.
AI is also reshaping international trade. Countries that are deeply involved in the technology supply chain, including South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, have benefited from stronger prices for AI chips and related equipment.
The BIS chief also highlighted evidence that generative AI can improve productivity considerably in certain areas. Research has recorded productivity gains ranging from 10% to 65% for specific tasks, particularly in coding, consulting and professional writing.
The bigger issue is whether these improvements will eventually translate into stronger productivity across entire economies.
Current projections indicate that AI could add around half a percentage point to annual total factor productivity growth. The outcome will depend on how quickly businesses adopt AI and how effectively workers and capital are shifted toward new areas of economic activity.
Advanced economies are likely to experience the benefits sooner because their economies have larger service sectors and are generally better prepared to introduce and use AI technologies.